EUROCONTROL publishes updated long-term traffic forecast

5 March 2024: EUROCONTROL, through their statistical forecasting unit (STATFOR), recently updated their long-term traffic forecast, building upon the autumn 2023 publication and incorporating the latest flight trends and forecast inputs.

Despite a strong Summer 2023, the number of European flights showed lower than expected volumes since November 2023 – with local disparities between eastern and western states. In addition, there has been a downwards revision in European economic forecasts for 2024. As a result, the flight forecast at European level has been revised slightly downwards until 2027.

The regional market segment, which covers operating aircraft of less than 120 seats, has also been revised downwards compared to the previous forecast, and is mainly due small changes in domestic markets with enhanced rail and bus alternatives, governmental policies, environmental initiatives and changes in airline Network strategies.

At ECAC level, the number of flights is likely to reach 10.6 million in 2024, reflecting growth of 4.9% (±2.3pp) compared to 2023, and accounting for 96% of 2019 levels. This trend is expected to continue, with an increase to 10.9 million (99%) in 2025, and further to 11.2 million (101%) by 2026. On a monthly basis, for ECAC, the number of flights is likely to reach the 2019 levels during Summer 2025.

Beyond 2025, flight growth is expected to average 2.0%/year (±1.4pp), rising to over 12 million flights in 2030.

This forecast is subject to various uncertainties, such as geopolitical events, economic shocks and ongoing challenges in the aviation industry and users are strongly advised to consider the low to high range of forecast values for their plans.

To access the forecast, please click here.