EUROCONTROL seven-year traffic forecast predicts 12m flights by 2030

29 October 2024: EUROCONTROL, through their statistical forecasting unit (STATFOR), recently updated their long-term traffic forecast, building upon the autumn 2023 publication and incorporating the latest flight trends and forecast inputs.

As we head towards the end of 2024, STATFOR anticipates approximately 10.7 million flights will operate within the ECAC region – a 5.1% increase compared to 2023, bringing traffic to 96% of 2019 levels and is aligned with the 2024 Network traffic forecast. Notably, many countries, particularly those in Southeast Europe, have recovered faster than initially expected.

For 2025, EUROCONTROL projects a 3.7% rise in traffic (±1.7 percentage points), reaching 11.1 million flights. This forecast is based on 2024 performance, a more optimistic economic outlook, and encouraging airline schedules for winter 2024-5. While overall traffic is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, regional variations will persist.

Looking to 2026 and beyond, the average annual increase in flights is forecasted at around 2.0% (±1.5 percentage points), with traffic now expected to surpass 12 million flights by 2030 in the baseline scenario.

For countries participating in the SES Performance Scheme, flight growth between 2025 and 2029 (RP4) is estimated to average 2.3% annually (±1.5 percentage points), a slight increase from the projection given in February.

To access the report, please click here.

Whilst the outlook remains positive, even with current traffic levels, ERA member airlines have experienced significant operational difficulties this past summer related to a lack of airspace capacity, ATC staffing, and weather. These issues disrupted hundreds of thousands of passengers across Europe and prevented regional airlines from operating at full capacity.

With no quick fix to these issues and traffic increasing year on year, ERA will continue to work in close collaboration across all relevant stakeholders over the next few months to help mitigate disruptions next summer and members have already been requested to provide schedule information where possible to help with Network Manager simulation activities.

For more information, please contact nick.rhodes@eraa.org