EUROCONTROL’s outlook on flights and CO2 forecasts

19 April 2022: EUROCONTROL published its Aviation Outlook 2050 report in April 2022, which looks at flights and CO2 emission forecasts. 

EUROCONTROL analysed three scenarios: high, base and low, base being the most likely scenario. In the most likely scenario forecasts 16 million flights in 2050, 44% more than 2019 flights, representing a 1.2% average growth per year. However, flight growth in Europe will have lost 10 years compared to EUROCONTROL’s previous forecasts (mainly due to the COVID19 impacts). 

With the increase of demand in high speed rail and night trains, the high demand for flights (particularly short haul) is expected to be reduced by less than 1% in Europe by 2050 in the most likely scenario. Sweden, UK, France, Spain, Portugal and Austria are the MS that will see a stronger reduction in demand by 2050. 

The report also forecasts that the following solutions contribute to this scenario by:
- Evolutionary improvements to aircraft and engines – 17%
- Revolutionary aircraft technologies – 2% 
- More efficient flights – 8% 
- Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels – 41%  
- Market based measures – 32% 
In this scenario, the CO2 emissions fall to 40% lower than 2005 levels by 2050. As we can see above, SAF represent the most promising way to decarbonise the sector as they can be used in current aircraft and with current airport infrastructure. 

You can find the full report here.