5 March 2025: EUROCONTROL and the STATFOR team have released their Spring 2025 seven-year forecast, updating projections based on the latest flight trends and data. This builds on the Autumn 2024 forecast and reflects changes in traffic patterns across Europe.

Key updates:

Recent trends: Since the last forecast, European flights have been slightly below the base scenario overall. However, some Mediterranean and Baltic States saw higher-than-expected overflights, influenced by various factors, including airspace closures and reroutings. Meanwhile, flights in Northern European countries (e.g. Germany, UK, Ireland, The Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Poland) have been slightly lower than anticipated.

2025 forecast:

• European flights are projected to reach 11.0 million (base scenario), an increase of 3.7% from 2024.
• The high scenario forecasts 5.1% growth.
• Adjusting for the leap year in 2024, this corresponds to a 4.0%–5.3% increase in daily flight numbers.
• Traffic across ECAC is expected to return to 2019 levels by Q2 2025, though some states have already surpassed pre-pandemic figures.

2026 and beyond:

• Flights are forecasted to grow by 2.5% (±1.3pp) in 2026, reaching over 12 million flights by 2031 in the base scenario.
• For SES Performance Scheme (RP4 2025-2029) states, annual flight growth is projected at 2.2% (±1.65pp), reflecting a slight downward revision (-0.1pp) from the previous forecast.

Considerations and uncertainties

EUROCONTROL highlights that geopolitical events, economic shifts, and aviation industry challenges could impact these forecasts. The current forecast assumes no changes to airspace closures or sanctions, though any developments related to the Ukraine-Russia conflict could affect projections.

The forecast highlights a ‘two-speed’ Europe, with some regions recovering faster than others. While these disparities are expected to narrow over time, they will continue to shape the environment in which ERA members operate. Keeping track of these trends is essential to understanding the challenges and opportunities ahead, and we encourage you to review the full report for further details.

You can download the forecast attached and additional information here [1].