ATAG’s Waypoint 2050

Waypoint 2050 was launched by ATAG during this year’s 2020 Global Sustainable Aviation Forum. The report analyses different pathways towards the sector’s long-term climate goal, which calls for a 50 per cent net reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 (compared to 2005). It finds that decarbonising the aviation sector to meet net-zero emissions by 2060 is feasible in different ways but will be very challenging. Efforts and commitments are necessary by all stakeholders: the aviation industry itself, governments, researchers and the energy industry.

The report expects that over 10 billion passengers will be carried by air transport per year by 2050, and without any further improvements this could generate 1,800 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2.

There is a range of measures that can help towards the decarbonisation of aviation – all are challenging but with the right support and policy measure in place they can be achieved.

1. Technology – by 2050 it is expected that electric and hydrogen powered propulsion have the potential to serve regional, short-haul and perhaps medium-haul flights, whilst for long-haul traditional liquid fuels will still be necessary.
2. Operations and infrastructure improvements – these can be implemented by airlines, airports and ANSPs to reduce CO2. It is key to maintain operational efficiency.
3. Sustainable aviation fuels – it is likely that aviation will need circa 450-500 million tonnes of SAF per year by 2050. This is achievable with strong sustainability criteria. The scale up will be a challenge and support from governments and the energy sector will be necessary.
4. Market-based measures – the sector will need to rely on MBMs in the medium term. Forestry, natural carbon sinks and carbon removal may be key in 2050.

The report analyses three scenarios of how the sector can reach its target of -50 per cent of CO2 by 2050 and pursue net-zero by 2060 or 2065 at a global level, with some regions reaching the goal earlier. Which scenario will play out will be based on various decisions in the upcoming years (such as prioritisation of SAF or new technology, SAF scale up, investment, etc).

You will find the report and other details here.